Bitcoin Battles at $107K: Bear Market or $150K Breakout?

The recent market turmoil has pushed Bitcoin to multi-week lows near $104,000, wiping out over $1.2 billion in trades and sending the Crypto Fear and Greed Index plunging to 22 – the lowest level since April and firmly in ‘extreme fear’ territory. This dramatic shift from ‘greed’ to ‘extreme fear’ in just days has put the entire market on edge, with long positions taking the heaviest hit during the liquidation cascade.

Leading the bearish charge is analyst Doctor Profit, who points to a chilling 10-year fractal pattern suggesting a bear phase is just beginning. ‘There is nothing to remain bullish in this market,’ he declared on X, projecting a potential bottom not due until October 2026. This historical comparison has amplified concerns among traders who see the current fear levels as either signaling capitulation or the start of massive accumulation by whales at distressed prices.

Bitcoin’s increasing sensitivity to traditional market forces and political developments was starkly demonstrated during the recent volatility. Prices immediately jumped when President Trump indicated proposed tariffs on China would not stand, revealing just how tightly Bitcoin is becoming tethered to macro headlines and Wall Street’s opening bell. This growing correlation with traditional markets marks a significant evolution for the cryptocurrency, which once prided itself on independence from conventional financial systems.

The United States political landscape and trade relations with China are now directly impacting Bitcoin’s price action, creating additional layers of complexity for traders. This heightened sensitivity to geopolitical events underscores Bitcoin’s maturation as an asset class while simultaneously introducing new volatility drivers that extend beyond traditional crypto-specific factors.

Not all analysts are capitulating to the bearish narrative. Macro analyst Ted Pillows presents a compelling bullish case, suggesting that if gold liquidity flows into Bitcoin, the crypto asset could surge to $150,000. ‘The key question is whether gold liquidity will flow into Bitcoin,’ wrote Pillows. ‘If people start seeing BTC as the better ‘safe haven’ now that gold looks overbought, then a run to $150K is very possible.’ This perspective positions Bitcoin to reclaim its ‘digital haven’ narrative at a time when traditional safe havens appear overextended.

Meanwhile, influencer Kyle Chassé paints an even more radical picture, pointing to expanding global liquidity as the catalyst for a potential path to $700,000 per Bitcoin if conditions hold. For the optimists, the immediate battleground centers on Bitcoin’s ability to defend the $105,000 zone, with some pointing to a potential short squeeze that could rocket the price back toward $117,000 in a matter of hours. However, as investor Chris Burniske warns, a break below the crucial 50-week moving average near $100,000 could signal a much deeper collapse, making this technical level a critical line in the sand for both bulls and bears.