Bitcoin at $110K Do-or-Die Level as Analysts Watch Key Support

Bitcoin’s recent price action has placed it in what Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone characterizes as a ‘do-or-die’ phase. The cryptocurrency tumbled almost 20% from its October 6 level of $123,500 to a low of $99,900 on November 4 before recovering to approximately $106,350. This decline left Bitcoin roughly 14% below its earlier October peak of $126,270, creating what McGlone identifies as a rollover pattern on monthly charts after months of sustained climbing.

The immediate technical test centers on the 200-day moving average, which sits near $110,000. According to McGlone’s analysis, Bitcoin has dropped below this crucial technical level as of November 7, representing a key hurdle that must be reclaimed to signal recovery. The current trading band between $100,000 and $110,000 has become the focal point for traders, with failure to push back above the 200-day moving average risking seller dominance and further price deterioration.

Additional technical warning signs have emerged in recent trading patterns. Reports highlight the appearance of long upper wicks on recent candles, indicating that buyers were consistently checked near price tops. Furthermore, the 12-month simple moving average has begun to flatten after a steady climb, suggesting the buying momentum that propelled Bitcoin higher throughout 2025 is showing signs of exhaustion.

Prominent trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe has identified strong resistance in the $108,000–$110,000 zone, aligning with McGlone’s technical assessment. According to van de Poppe, breaking through this critical range could open the door back to recent highs, potentially triggering a scenario where altcoins outperform Bitcoin in the subsequent rally. This perspective underscores the significance of the current price level not just for Bitcoin but for the broader cryptocurrency market.

The technical picture presented by analysts suggests a binary outcome scenario. Reclaiming $110,000 would be interpreted as a positive signal that could restore buying confidence and potentially catalyze renewed upward momentum. Conversely, falling below the $100,000 support level would likely trigger deeper losses, according to the technical patterns analysts are monitoring. This creates what McGlone describes as the opposite of gold’s bull flag pattern observed in August, indicating potential divergence between the two alternative assets.

Despite the technical concerns, institutional buyers remain active in the market. Michael Saylor’s firm purchased 487 BTC worth approximately $50 million, bringing its reported holdings to 641,692 BTC. This continued accumulation by one of Bitcoin’s most prominent institutional advocates contrasts with other market flows, particularly exchange-traded funds which experienced outflows totaling $1.22 billion last week.

Market sentiment indicators show modest improvement amid recent developments. CoinMarketCap’s Fear and Greed Index rose to 29 from 24, reflecting slightly less pessimistic market psychology. Bitcoin gained about 3.6% in the past 24 hours as lawmakers advanced a US government shutdown deal, suggesting macroeconomic developments continue to influence cryptocurrency prices. Traders are pricing event-contract probabilities that place a 28% chance Bitcoin reaches $130,000 or higher this year and a 9% chance it tops $150,000.

Several near-term catalysts could tip the scale in Bitcoin’s delicate balance. US President Donald Trump’s mention of a possible $2,000 tariff ‘dividend’ and progress toward ending the government shutdown appear to have contributed to the recent price bounce. These fiscal developments highlight the continued sensitivity of cryptocurrency markets to United States policy decisions and macroeconomic conditions.

According to Timothy Misir, head of research at Blockhead Research Network, the market has achieved cleaner positioning and could experience a constructive November if fiscal clarity emerges and ETF flows stabilize. However, Misir also warned about persistent risks, including continued ETF outflows, delivery delays on fiscal measures, and rising market leverage that could reverse the fragile recovery. These factors create a complex backdrop against which Bitcoin’s technical battle is playing out.

For now, Bitcoin remains confined to a tight trading range with all eyes on the $100,000-$110,000 zone. The coming moves around these critical levels will determine whether this period represents a temporary pause in Bitcoin’s longer-term appreciation or a significant turning point in market sentiment. As traders and institutions watch price action closely, the outcome will shape not just Bitcoin’s immediate trajectory but potentially the broader cryptocurrency market’s direction through year-end.