Bitcoin Analysts Predict Deeper Cycle Bottom Below $54K

The recent market volatility, which saw Bitcoin briefly approach $74,000 before rebounding above $76,800, has been accompanied by critical technical developments. According to analyst Doctor Profit, Bitcoin has decisively broken below the 100-week moving average (MA100 Weekly), a level he describes as the definitive separator between bull and bear market conditions. This breakdown is particularly significant because Bitcoin’s sustained move above this same average in October 2023 was widely seen as the confirmation signal for the previous bull market. Losing it now, Doctor Profit argues, indicates a transition into a bear phase, a view bolstered by the emergence of a ‘death cross’ technical pattern.

Doctor Profit notes that the current market structure bears a striking resemblance to the setup observed during the 2021-2022 cycle peak and subsequent downturn. The move below the MA100 Weekly was not only sharp but also represented a confirmed breakdown from a bearish flag pattern he had been monitoring. Based on this analysis, he expects Bitcoin to consolidate below this key level before continuing its descent toward an initial target of $70,000, which he believes will not be the ultimate cycle low. Consequently, he has revised his bottom projection downward from a prior $50,000-$60,000 range to a new, lower zone between $54,000 and $44,000.

Compounding the bearish technical picture is a notable cooling of interest from traditional finance investors. A recent market update from Matrixport highlights a concerning trend: spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded three consecutive months of net outflows. This slowdown in institutional capital allocation is occurring despite the fact that many U.S. wealth managers have only recently enabled client access to these products. The firm points out that the last month of meaningful inflows was in July, with only a brief resurgence in October, indicating that overall momentum has deteriorated significantly since the summer.

This persistent outflow is happening against a backdrop that would typically be considered supportive for alternative assets, including a strong rally in gold and the continuation of broader de-dollarization themes. Matrixport’s analysis suggests that the current narrative driving Bitcoin investment may be exhausted. The firm concludes that Bitcoin may require a new or refreshed catalyst to attract renewed, durable interest from traditional investors and form a sustainable market bottom.

Beyond charts and fund flows, specific market dynamics are adding layers of risk. Doctor Profit flagged a critical pressure point: Bitcoin’s price has dropped below the average entry price of a major entity referred to as ‘Strategy,’ estimated around $76,000. With a significant portion of Strategy’s Bitcoin position reportedly acquired using leverage, and with the firm’s stock—used as collateral—in decline, stabilization becomes more difficult when the asset trades below its cost basis. Doctor Profit emphasized that Strategy’s overall Bitcoin position is now roughly flat on a profit-and-loss basis, with no profits having been taken, leaving it vulnerable to further downside.

This precarious setup for a large market participant could intensify fear and panic selling. Doctor Profit also warned that external, non-financial narratives, such as speculation linked to the release of certain high-profile files, could fuel emotional selling regardless of their direct relevance to crypto markets. The convergence of these factors—technical breakdowns, weakening institutional demand through ETFs, and the risk of forced selling from leveraged positions—paints a challenging near-term outlook for Bitcoin, suggesting the path to a true cycle low may be longer and deeper than many investors anticipated.