Bernstein Reaffirms $1M Bitcoin Target, Extends Bull Cycle Timeline

Bernstein’s latest analysis, highlighted by VanEck’s head of digital assets research Matthew Sigel, presents a clear shift in its intermediate price targets and timing. The firm has moved its 2026 Bitcoin price target to $150,000, with the cycle potentially peaking in 2027 at around $200,000. This marks a notable departure from its earlier projections made in mid-2024, which anticipated a cycle high near $200,000 by 2025, driven explicitly by strong US spot ETF inflows and constrained supply. The adjustment acknowledges that while Bitcoin did break to new highs on ETF demand, the price action fell short of the original aggressive timeline, topping out in the mid-$120,000s before a roughly 30% correction.

The core of Bernstein’s revised thesis is not a change in the ultimate destination—the $1 million target for 2033 remains firmly in place—but a recognition of a slower ascent. The firm’s track record shows it has been directionally correct on the key drivers: ETF adoption, institutionalization, and supply absorption. However, it was “too aggressive on the speed” at which these forces would translate into price appreciation. By effectively rescheduling its earlier targets by one to two years, Bernstein formalizes the view that Bitcoin’s integration into regulated markets is a structural, multi-year process rather than a short-term speculative event.

The most consequential element of Bernstein’s new framework is its declaration that Bitcoin’s classic four-year halving cycle pattern has been superseded. The firm posits that the market is now in an “elongated bull-cycle” where “more sticky institutional buying” is offsetting retail panic selling. This shift is attributed to the behavior of capital in the recently approved spot Bitcoin ETFs, which Bernstein sees as a decisive and permanent catalyst that has altered Bitcoin’s market structure.

The critical data point underpinning this view emerged during the recent market correction. Despite Bitcoin’s price falling nearly 30%, spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed net outflows of less than 5%. Bernstein interprets this resilience as stark evidence of institutional capital’s staying power, contrasting it with the “reflexive retail capitulation” that historically defined market tops. This “stickiness” suggests that large, ETF-mediated capital pools are governing price action to a greater degree than the halving schedule, creating a more stable foundation for growth over the rest of the decade.

Bernstein’s analysis carries significant implications for how traditional finance views Bitcoin. By framing the asset within a longer, ETF-anchored cycle, the firm is signaling that Bitcoin’s volatility profile and investment thesis are evolving. The focus shifts from timing halving events to monitoring the net flows and holder behavior within regulated products like those offered by VanEck and used by entities like MicroStrategy as a core treasury reserve asset.

This perspective reinforces the narrative of deepening institutionalization. The minimal ETF outflows during a sharp downturn suggest that large allocators are treating Bitcoin exposure as a strategic, long-term holding rather than a tactical trade. For the market, this could mean fewer violent boom-and-bust cycles and a price discovery process increasingly influenced by portfolio allocation decisions from pension funds, endowments, and corporations, alongside the existing crypto-native demand. As of the latest data, with BTC trading at $90,319, Bernstein’s revised path suggests a patient but fundamentally bullish outlook, where the journey to seven figures is now seen as a marathon shaped by institutional adoption, not a sprint dictated by retail sentiment.