Arthur Hayes Predicts Zcash Could Hit $10K-$20K

Hayes, who was “deep into Zcash in 2016” when BitMEX listed pre-genesis futures and spot prices briefly hit $3,000, argues the protocol has evolved from a divisive experiment into a credible privacy asset. The crucial transformation came through protocol upgrades that eliminated what Hayes identifies as “the original single biggest credibility drag”—the trusted setup issue. “I think it was the Halo 2 upgrade recently removed or maybe a few years ago removed that trusted setup issue,” Hayes explained, noting this technical maturation reframes Zcash from a clever but encumbered R&D project into an asset whose cryptography now clears the institutional sniff test.

The former BitMEX CEO tested the upgraded technology firsthand, installing Zcash’s flagship Zashi wallet and using Near Intents flows to shield and swap assets. He described the experience as “essentially like Tornado Cash on steroids,” emphasizing that the resulting output asset “appears, but it’s not linked to any other transaction.” While acknowledging that costs remain a friction point—”It’s definitely not cheap yet”—Hayes points to compelling trend data showing shielded transactions approaching 30% of Zcash activity, up from “a few percentage points when I cared about Zcash a long time ago.” This surge indicates the privacy feature set isn’t just theoretically stronger but is being actively used.

Hayes builds his demand narrative around a fundamental distinction between pseudonymity and true privacy. “I believe in privacy coins… I think Bitcoin being pseudonymous is actually a good thing because I want to be able to track Bitcoin, but I also want to have internet cash where there is no traceability of that,” he stated. This differentiation becomes particularly relevant in what Hayes characterizes as “the age of on-chain forensics and AI-enabled pattern recognition,” where true cash-like privacy represents a product with differentiated utility.

The BitMEX founder explicitly contrasted Zcash with Monero, citing recent reports that “the Japanese authorities were able to deanonymize Monero by… linking together different disparate parts of some information.” This comparison underscores Hayes’ conviction that Zcash’s cryptographic approach provides superior privacy guarantees in practice. The combination of proven technology and growing real-world usage—evidenced by the 30% shielded transaction rate—forms the foundation of his demand thesis, suggesting Zcash could capture significant value as surveillance capabilities advance.

The third pillar of Hayes’ bullish case centers on Zcash’s upcoming halving in November, which he frames as a timing catalyst that could supercharge reflexivity if investor attention and liquidity arrive simultaneously. While Hayes dismisses halving dogma in Bitcoin, he views the synchronous combination of a mechanical issuance drop and rising privacy demand as “unusually potent for a small-float asset.” The supply reduction becomes particularly significant given Zcash’s constrained liquidity landscape.

Hayes revealed the practical challenges of acquiring meaningful ZEC positions, stating “I hit up… eight or nine OTC brokers. Only two brokers would quote me Zcash.” This limited accessibility represents both a risk and opportunity in his assessment. He expects that if prices begin trending upward, “the path will run through permissionless rails rather than regulated exchanges,” drawing parallels to Bitcoin’s early days. “If the price rises high enough… I can buy it on one of these decentralized exchanges and that’ll be how you really get access… just like how Bitcoin was back [then].”

Hayes disclosed substantial personal investment in Zcash, triggered by a dinner during Token2049 where Naval Ravikant “started shilling me on Zcash.” This conversation prompted Hayes to re-evaluate his 2016-era objections and ultimately re-underwrite the protocol. “I bought a few million bucks on the spot at that point,” Hayes revealed, adding that he continued buying “even though I bought it after the 80% pump when Naval sent out that tweet.”

This personal conviction underpins Hayes’ expectation that Zcash’s upside could “compress into weeks rather than years.” With ZEC trading at $464 at the time of his interview, the path to his $10,000-$20,000 target represents extraordinary potential returns. Hayes summarized his position unequivocally: “I’ve bought a lot of it… I’m still buying it. I think that this is probably going to be one of my better trades of the cycle.” His combination of technical analysis, demand thesis, supply dynamics, and personal capital commitment presents a comprehensive case for Zcash’s asymmetric opportunity.