Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Surge to $200K by March on Fed Policy

Arthur Hayes’s prediction hinges on a specific monetary policy shift announced by the Federal Reserve on December 10th. The Fed’s new “Reserve Management Purchases” or RMP policy, introduced during its most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting, has become the centerpiece of Hayes’s thesis. In his blog post, Hayes describes RMP as entering his “Love Language dictionary,” immediately recognizing it as kin to his “long-lost love, quantitative easing.” He loves QE, he explains, because it signifies money printing, which historically benefits financial assets like Bitcoin that can appreciate faster than the rate of fiat currency creation.

Hayes argues that as the market comes to equate RMP with traditional QE, capital will flood into inflation-resistant assets. “I own financial assets like gold, gold/silver mining stocks, and Bitcoin that rise faster than the pace of fiat money creation,” Hayes wrote. This perspective frames Bitcoin not just as a speculative asset, but as a direct hedge against central bank policy. Hayes extends this view further, suggesting that continued money printing could one day drive Bitcoin to replace what he calls the “filthy fiat fractional reserve system.”

Hayes provides a specific and time-bound roadmap for Bitcoin’s price action. He anticipates a rapid ascent in the new year, with Bitcoin quickly retaking the $124,000 level and then “punching quickly towards $200,000” by March. He pinpoints March as the likely peak for market expectations regarding RMP’s power to ramp asset prices. Following this peak, Hayes forecasts a decline where Bitcoin will “form a local bottom well above $124,000.” He attributes the persistence of this high floor to the ongoing actions of the Fed, humorously noting it will occur “as John Williams keeps his grubby fingers firmly planted on the Brrrr button.” John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and FOMC Vice Chair, is thus framed as a key figure maintaining loose monetary conditions.

This new forecast represents a significant revision from Hayes’s earlier prediction. At the beginning of the year, he had projected Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2024. He has now walked back that call, instead expecting Bitcoin to range between $80,000 and $100,000 to close out the current year. From its recent trading level around $88,000—still 30% below its all-time high of $126,080—a climb to $200,000 would require a jump of approximately 127% in the coming months.

Hayes’s ultra-bullish pronouncement arrived the same day that crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant published a report suggesting Bitcoin may have already entered a bear market. CryptoQuant’s assessment is based not on price alone, but on various on-chain and market factors that have indicated significant decline since early October. This creates a stark dichotomy in market narratives: one driven by macro-monetary policy expectations from a famed billionaire investor, and another grounded in technical and on-chain metrics from a data analytics firm.

Beyond Bitcoin, Hayes also highlighted another asset he believes will benefit from the monetary environment. He expressed bullishness on Ethena’s native token, ENA, describing it as “a TradFi vs. crypto USD rates play.” This suggests Hayes sees opportunities in instruments that capitalize on the divergence between traditional finance interest rates and those within the cryptocurrency ecosystem, further broadening his thesis on the impact of Fed policy.

The core of Hayes’s argument remains the transformative effect of central bank action. By framing the Fed’s RMP as a direct successor to QE, he provides a clear, macro-driven narrative for Bitcoin’s next potential leg up. Whether the market aligns with this view or heeds the warning signs flagged by on-chain analysts will determine if Bitcoin embarks on the dramatic journey to $200,000 that Hayes has charted.