ARK Invest: Crypto Market to Hit $28T by 2030, Bitcoin Dominates

In its “Big Ideas 2026” report, ARK Invest lays out a staggering projection: the total market value for smart contract networks and pure-play digital currencies could expand to $28 trillion by 2030. This represents an annual growth rate of approximately 61% through the end of the decade. The firm segments this future market, with Bitcoin forecasted to account for roughly 70% of the total, equating to a market capitalization of about $16 trillion. This growth implies a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 63% for BTC, rising from nearly $2 trillion today.

The remainder of the projected $28 trillion market, approximately $6 trillion, is expected to be dominated by smart contract networks. ARK estimates this segment could grow at a 54% annual rate, supported by annualized revenue of about $192 billion at an average platform take rate of 0.75%. The firm posits that this substantial market will likely be captured by only two to three leading Layer 1 platforms, highlighting a trend toward consolidation at the infrastructure level.

A key driver behind ARK’s bullish outlook is the accelerating pace of institutional adoption. The firm’s data reveals that by 2025, US Bitcoin ETFs and public companies collectively held 12% of the total Bitcoin supply, a significant increase from 8.7% previously. This accumulation was robust on both fronts: ETF balances rose 19.7% during the year, from about 1.12 million BTC to almost 1.3 million BTC, while public company holdings expanded even more dramatically, climbing 73% from around 598,000 BTC to approximately 1.09 million BTC.

Concurrent with this institutional embrace, ARK observed a maturation in Bitcoin’s market behavior. Throughout most of 2025, BTC’s risk-adjusted returns, as measured by the Sharpe Ratio, surpassed those of most other large-cap cryptocurrencies and major indexes. Specifically, Bitcoin’s average yearly Sharpe Ratio exceeded that of Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and the average of the other nine components in the CoinDesk 10 Index across multiple timeframes. The firm notes this performance is coupled with decreasing volatility, suggesting Bitcoin is growing into its perceived role as a digital safe-haven asset.

ARK’s analysis delves deeper into the valuation models for leading smart contract platforms, revealing a critical evolution. The firm found that Layer 1 networks are transitioning from being viewed primarily as revenue-generating platforms to being treated as monetary assets. Applying a high-growth revenue multiple of 50x to Ethereum’s network revenue, ARK estimated that more than 90% of Ethereum’s market value is now attributed to its role as a monetary asset, rather than its utility fee generation.

In contrast, the valuation driver for Solana appears different. ARK stated that Solana generated $1.4 billion in revenue, implying that around 90% of its valuation is currently driven by network utility. This divergence underscores the complex and developing frameworks for assessing blockchain assets. Based on this research, ARK concludes that only a select few digital assets will ultimately retain durable monetary properties and serve as liquid stores of value in the long term, suggesting a coming shakeout in the broader crypto asset universe.