Introduction
A growing chorus of crypto analysts is challenging the pervasive narrative that the altcoin era has ended. Instead of interpreting prolonged underperformance as terminal decline, they point to critical technical structures and momentum indicators suggesting the market is in a historic rotation zone, quietly positioning for a potential recovery. The current lull, they argue, represents a ‘loaded spring’ accumulating energy rather than a graveyard for alternative cryptocurrencies.
Key Points
- The OTHERS/BTC ratio is testing a decade-long rising support trendline, a level that has historically triggered rotations into altcoins.
- Monthly MACD on the OTHERS/BTC chart shows its first bullish cross in four years, a pattern that previously aligned with early altcoin recovery phases.
- Analysts interpret current low volatility and sideways action as a 'loaded spring' scenario—accumulating energy rather than indicating permanent decline.
Decade-Long Structure Holds the Key
Amid Bitcoin’s dominance and widespread trader fatigue, crypto analyst Cryptollica offers a counter-narrative grounded in long-term market geometry. The focal point of this analysis is the OTHERS/BTC ratio, a metric tracking the total cryptocurrency market capitalization excluding the top ten assets, measured against Bitcoin. According to Cryptollica, this ratio is currently testing a critical rising trend support line that has defined the market’s structure for nearly a decade. Historical interactions with this channel’s lower boundary have consistently preceded major capital rotations from Bitcoin into altcoins.
At present, the OTHERS/BTC ratio has been compressing in a narrowing range for months, with altcoin dominance drifting lower and volatility drying up. However, Cryptollica emphasizes that the price is ‘respecting a decade-long geometric structure without a breakdown.’ This compression, he argues, should not be mistaken for structural weakness. Instead, it represents a pivotal rotation point within a persistent long-term framework. ‘Traders declaring altcoins dead are reacting to fatigue, not structure,’ the analysis suggests, framing the market’s sideways action as a period of preparation, with energy being stored like a ‘loaded spring.’
Momentum Indicators Signal a Quiet Shift
Beneath the surface of apparent stagnation, key momentum indicators are beginning to flash bullish signals for altcoins. Analyst Ash Crypto highlights a significant development on the monthly chart of the OTHERS/BTC ratio: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has registered two consecutive green closes for the first time in four years. More importantly, this has confirmed a bullish cross on the MACD.
Historical precedent gives this signal considerable weight. Ash Crypto notes that this specific pattern has ‘always corresponded with the earliest stages of altcoin recoveries,’ particularly following extended periods of underperformance. This suggests that the foundational momentum for a market shift may already be in place, even if price action remains subdued. The confirmation of this momentum shift, occurring while the OTHERS/BTC ratio holds above its multi-year support, strengthens the case that the current phase is one of accumulation rather than capitulation.
Macro Context and the Path Forward
Adding another layer to the bullish thesis, Ash Crypto points to a macroeconomic indicator aligning with the technical picture. The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) index has moved back above the 50% level. This threshold is significant because, in past cycles, the index crossing above 50% has repeatedly coincided with improving conditions for altcoins. While not a direct driver of crypto prices, its correlation with past altcoin recoveries provides a complementary macro backdrop to the emerging technical signals.
The convergence of these factors—a hold at decade-long structural support, a confirmed bullish momentum cross unseen in years, and a supportive macro indicator—paints a coherent picture for analysts like Cryptollica and Ash Crypto. They conclude that the prevailing sentiment of an ‘altcoin era’ being over is premature. The current environment, characterized by compression and low volatility, is interpreted not as a sign of permanent decline but as a complex rotation zone. The market appears to be positioning itself, with the OTHERS/BTC ratio at a historic inflection point, suggesting that the much-anticipated ‘altcoin season’ may be in its earliest, quietest stages of formation.
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