Analyst: Bitcoin Death Cross Signals Major Rally Ahead

Veteran analyst Alessio Rastani is making a bold call that Bitcoin (BTC) is setting up for a powerful upward move, with the flagship cryptocurrency trading at around $91,000 at the time of his analysis. Despite being almost 28% away from its October all-time high above $126,000, Rastani’s conviction is rooted in a combination of classic technical signals and overwhelming negative sentiment that he believes are creating perfect conditions for a rebound. The trader argues that many investors are ‘jumping the gun’ by calling a bear market based solely on timing models and the sharp pullback from recent highs.

Rastani’s analysis examined every Bitcoin death cross—where the 50-day simple moving average falls below the 200-day—dating back to 2011. His research revealed that approximately 75% of these signals occurred close to major market bottoms, with BTC typically posting positive returns over the following one to three months. The pattern becomes even more reliable when the death cross appears shortly after an all-time high, as happened with the November 15 signal. This historical precedent forms the foundation of his bullish outlook for Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.

Complementing the technical picture, Rastani points to what he describes as Bitcoin being ‘extremely hated’ in current market sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index has remained in extreme fear territory for weeks, while social media comment sections have been filled with predictions of a drop to as low as $10,000. For Rastani, this level of despair often marks the later stages of a correction, as weaker hands capitulate after buying near the top of the market cycle.

The analyst views the current drop as a correction within a wider uptrend, particularly given that Bitcoin is holding long-term support levels and weekly RSI has been deeply oversold. His base case projects a 15-20% rebound over the next several weeks, with the potential for new highs emerging in early 2026 rather than before year-end. This timeline suggests a more measured recovery that allows for proper market consolidation before the next major upward leg.

While Rastani presents a compelling bullish case, other analysts have been more cautious about declaring a definitive bottom for Bitcoin. Key on-chain metrics like the 30-day and 365-day MVRV ratios remain negative, indicating that many traders are still underwater on their positions. This fundamental data suggests underlying weakness that could complicate any near-term recovery narrative.

Adding to the concerns, whales holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have been cutting exposure for six consecutive weeks, raising doubts about a sustained return to six-figure prices. This persistent selling pressure from large holders contradicts the technical bullish signals and indicates that institutional confidence may not have fully returned to the Bitcoin market despite the attractive entry points.

Derivatives data also paints a fragile picture for Bitcoin’s near-term stability. Alphractal founder Joao Wedson recently characterized Bitcoin as ‘one of the most leveraged assets in history,’ pointing to perpetual futures open interest peaking in October at nearly five times the level seen at the 2021 high. The current leverage-heavy landscape is dominated by Binance and Bybit, with longs accounting for approximately 72% of positions by value, creating potential vulnerability to cascading liquidations if prices move against leveraged traders.