Algorithmic XRP Seller Dumps $5B on Upbit Over 10 Months

Market researcher Dom (@traderview2) has identified a persistent, algorithmic seller on the XRP/KRW trading pair at South Korea’s Upbit exchange. By analyzing 82 million trades, Dom concluded that this entity has created “a $5 billion one directional selling pipeline running 24/7 for almost a year.” The net selling over ten months amounted to approximately 3.3 billion XRP, a figure representing 5.4% of XRP’s entire circulating supply moved through a single exchange pair.

The pattern is defined by its relentless consistency. Dom’s analysis shows Upbit’s XRP/KRW market was net negative every single month for the ten-month period, with only one positive week out of 46. There was no distinction between weekdays and weekends, and no time of day where aggregate buying outweighed selling. Months like October and January saw net selling of -382 million and -370 million XRP, respectively. This persistence led Dom to frame the activity not as discretionary trading but as “infrastructure.”

The analysis points decisively to automated execution. Dom’s forensic work, triggered by observing a -57 million XRP cumulative volume delta over 17 hours, revealed that 61% of the sell-side trades were executed within 10 milliseconds. The seller operated with a single bot running for 17 hours straight, pausing only once for 33 seconds. The order sizes further indicated machine-like behavior, with the sell side repeatedly using round-number clips like 10, 50, 100, 500, and 1000 XRP.

In stark contrast, the buy side on Upbit displayed hallmarks of retail participation. Dom noted a large fraction of “tiny fractional sizes” such as 2.535, 3.679, and 2.681 XRP. This pattern is consistent with KRW-denominated retail orders, where investors buy a fixed amount of Korean won worth of XRP. “One side looks like retail,” Dom wrote. “The other looks like a machine.” This setup created a feedback loop where, according to Dom, Korean retail became net buyers on strong “moon days,” while the systematic seller’s intensity increased 8x on “crash days,” amplifying market moves.

A key finding that reframes the selling as a venue-specific phenomenon is its weak correlation with global flows. Dom compared the activity on Upbit’s XRP/KRW pair with Binance’s XRP/USDT market. He found Binance experienced “2-5x less sell pressure on the same coin” during identical windows. For instance, in a period in June, “Binance was net positive while Upbit bled -218M.” The hourly correlation between the net flows on the two major venues was only 0.37, suggesting Upbit’s selling is driven by local factors rather than simply mirroring global crypto positioning.

Further evidence of a localized dynamic came from pricing. Dom observed that from April through September, XRP on Upbit traded at a consistent 3-6% discount to its price on Binance, a situation he termed a “reverse Kimchi discount.” This detail is critical: it indicates the seller was willing to accept consistently worse execution prices than were available on global markets for months. “They don’t care about the price,” Dom concluded, suggesting the entity has a specific need for Korean won (KRW), is mandated to use Upbit, or consists of Korean holders taking profit.

The seller’s behavior remained consistent even after a structural market shift. Dom noted that around October 10, Korean retail demand surged, flipping the XRP price premium on Upbit from -0.07% to +2.4% in a single day. Instead of backing off, the systematic seller “doubled their daily rate” from -6.3 million to -11.2 million XRP per day, selling into the increased retail buying pressure. This reinforces the thesis of an entity with a non-discretionary, liquidity-focused objective.