Swiss asset manager 21Shares has published a comprehensive XRP outlook for 2026. Crypto researcher Matt Mena puts the base case at 2.45 USD (50 percent probability). The bullish scenario sits at 2.69 USD (30 percent), while the bearish case lands at 1.60 USD (20 percent). XRP currently trades at around 1.75 USD with a market capitalization of 106.8 billion USD.
The report rests on three pillars: regulatory clarity following the SEC settlement, institutional demand through spot ETFs, and growing adoption of the RLUSD stablecoin. 21Shares itself operates XRP ETF products, which should be taken into account when assessing the outlook.
ETF inflows set records
The XRP spot ETFs launched in November 2025 gathered 1.3 billion USD in assets under management within one month. According to 21Shares, the products recorded 55 consecutive days of net inflows. As of January 2026, total AUM across all XRP ETFs stands at 2 billion USD. Roughly 808 million XRP are locked in total.
Canary Capital leads with its XRPC ETF and AUM of 350 million USD. Franklin Templeton follows with the XRPZ product at 276 million USD. At 0.19 percent, the expense ratio is the lowest in the history of spot crypto ETFs. Bitwise secured the single-letter ticker “XRP” on the NYSE and attracted 118 million USD shortly after launch. Grayscale then converted its existing XRP Trust into a fully liquid spot ETF.
“The ETF launch fundamentally rewrote the asset’s demand profile. Within a month of launching, these ETFs amassed over $1.3 billion in assets under management.” – Matt Mena, 21Shares
Bitcoin spot ETFs attracted 38 billion USD in their first year by comparison, doubling Bitcoin’s price from 40,000 to 100,000 USD. At the ETF launch, XRP’s market capitalization stood at 113 billion USD, while Bitcoin’s reached 845 billion. Proportional inflows could therefore produce a stronger price effect for XRP. Standard Chartered forecasts 4 to 8 billion USD in ETF inflows for full-year 2026.
RLUSD stablecoin grows by 1,800 percent
Beyond ETF inflows, 21Shares highlights the growth of Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin as a demand driver for XRP. Since launching in December 2024, its market capitalization rose from 72 million to roughly 1.4 billion USD. That amounts to an increase of 1,800 percent within one year. RLUSD now ranks as the third-largest US-regulated stablecoin after USDC and PYUSD, issued under an NYDFS license.
At the same time, the XRP Ledger hosts a DeFi ecosystem with over 100 million USD in total value locked. An additional 358 million USD sits in tokenized real-world assets across 47 products. Stablecoin holdings on the XRPL amount to 306 million USD, with 77 percent attributable to RLUSD.
Still, these numbers look modest in a competitive comparison. The Canton Network, backed by DTCC, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase, already moves over 6 trillion USD in tokenized assets at a daily volume of 300 billion USD. Ethereum’s DeFi TVL stands at 83 billion USD, while Solana’s reaches 11 billion. Yet 21Shares argues that the XRPL is designed as an institutional settlement layer and should not be compared directly with DeFi platforms.
SEC settlement removes regulatory hurdle
In August 2025, Ripple and the SEC concluded their four-year legal battle with a 50 million USD settlement. Originally, the court had ordered a penalty of 125 million USD, of which 75 million was refunded. Both parties withdrew their appeals. As a result, Judge Analisa Torres’ ruling from July 2023 became legally binding. Programmatic XRP sales to retail buyers on exchanges do not qualify as securities under this ruling. Only direct institutional sales fell under securities law.
During the 2021 bull run, legal uncertainty kept XRP’s price below 2 USD. After the resolution, the token reached an all-time high of 3.66 USD in July 2025. Regulatory clarity opened access for institutional investors for the first time. However, the flash crash in October 2025 to an 11-month low of 0.78 USD demonstrated persistent volatility. By January 2026, XRP recovered to 2.40 USD before consolidating at 1.75 USD.
In parallel, XRP reserves on exchanges dropped to 1.7 billion XRP — a 7-year low. Over the course of 2025, holdings fell from roughly 4 billion to 1.6 billion XRP. This marked the largest annual reduction in the token’s history and points to a shift toward long-term holding.
Analysts divided on price targets
Forecasts for XRP in 2026 span a remarkably wide range. 21Shares sets its base case at 2.45 USD, while Standard Chartered forecasts 8 USD. Analyst consensus sits at around 3.90 USD. Standard Chartered’s target would require a market capitalization of 456 billion USD, nearly four times the current valuation.
21Shares names specific risk factors. Should ETF inflows slow or reverse, demand erosion looms. If measurable utility and bank adoption do not materialize at the expected scale, the market could price in a “sell the news” effect. And in the tokenization space, the XRPL must compete against established rivals like Canton, Ethereum Layer-2 solutions, and Solana.
Further regulatory decisions are pending. Originally, the CLARITY Act was scheduled for Senate markup in January 2026. Lawmakers delayed it, though, due to concerns about tokenized equities and DeFi. Meanwhile, the GENIUS Act does not take effect until 2027. A market structure bill could pass in Q1 2026 but remains uncertain. Further regulatory delays could slow institutional adoption.
